Trial Conversion Deep-Dive
12-month analysis · Mar 2025 → Mar 2026 · Data: Mantle + Memory
Baseline
29%
Mar 2025
90-Day Rolling
48%
Dec 2025 – Mar 2026
Improvement
+19pp
vs Mar 2025 baseline
Install Volume
−25%
vs Jul 2025 peak
Inflection Point: Non-Variant Flow (Dec 24, 2025)
The single biggest driver of the conversion recovery. By auto-enabling non-variant flow on all new installs, Shopify's 100-variant limit no longer blocks trial users from experiencing the product. Before: variant hell → abandon. After: clean line-item properties → convert.
Conversion Rate Over Time
Green line = trial conversion rate (left axis) · Blue area = install volume (right axis) · Jan 2026 spike = lagged Dec conversions
Correlation Analysis
Formula builder maturity + support docs
Peak install quality (high-intent leads, no competition)
Options PC captured high-intent searchers → lower-quality incoming installs
Non-variant flow: removed variant hell → "this just works" → convert
⚠ Why Conversion Alone Can't Save Growth
Monthly installs
~132
× 48% conversion
~63 new pays
vs. churn (~6.5–8%/mo)
~62–76 churns
Net result: roughly breakeven to −13 customers/month. Even at 60% conversion, it's barely positive without higher install volume. The install problem must be solved.
Recommended Levers
Title, description, screenshots. Highest leverage for install recovery. Mention top formula use cases up front.
Day 1: "what to build first" · Day 3: formula builder guide · Day 7: "you're almost out of trial" CTA. Conservative est: +5–8pp conversion.
More time = more value realized. Worth A/B testing. Cost: near zero.
Proactively migrate existing installs instead of requiring them to contact support.
After first successful formula build, request a review. Current review velocity too low.
Generated by Albert · March 10, 2026 · Data: Mantle MCP, GSC, MEMORY.md